ACUS11 KWNS 092236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092235=20
TXZ000-092330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...portions southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092235Z - 092330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail are possible with some
of the stronger, longer lasting storms. A brief damaging gust also
cannot be ruled out. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat,
a WW issuance is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells/transient supercell structures have
developed over the past couple of hours, with MRMS MESH mosaics
depicting potential 1+ inch hail production with the more mature
storms. These storms are initiating off of a remnant outflow
boundary from yesterday's storms, in tandem with afternoon peak
heating. While forcing for ascent is weak, these storms are
benefiting from a very unstable and uncapped airmass, with MLCAPE
exceeding 4000 J/kg. Furthermore, modest northwesterly flow aloft is contributing to 35 kts of effective bulk shear, which will support
multicells and perhaps supercells given the aforementioned strong
buoyancy. Large hail is the main threat, though a couple of damaging
gusts could also occur. It is uncertain if a WW issuance will be
needed since the severe threat should be localized and potentially
short-lived.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NQAvl6DKU2NwYsacjDwlGC_TmEot9wZZaFBHiGWBGMJIJf5hp-WhHtNJmCSKWjS6QjUpW3Qy= GQy6wP5gkXuEChoI3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 30029826 30269732 30559572 30479439 30089405 29629426
29279496 29179557 29249681 29499802 30029826=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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