ACUS11 KWNS 091846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091845=20
COZ000-NMZ000-092045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Areas affected...south-central CO into central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091845Z - 092045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts and hail possible through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed over higher
terrain early this afternoon with modest northwest flow aloft.
Strong heating at steep lapse rates are supporting weak to moderate instability, aiding in occasional strong updraft pulses. Better
boundary layer moisture will will remain to the east of the MCD area
across far eastern NM. This drier boundary layer, combined with
steep low-level lapse rates should support occasional strong to
severe gusts. Cold temperature aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates
also could result in sporadic hail. The overall risk should remain
somewhat limited over the next few hours and a watch does not appear
imminent in the short term, but severe potential could increase by
late afternoon/early evening as convection develops downstream
toward better moisture and vertical shear.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92S_-Ahhco6qQb3NmLevU-FOBl6SYEity7o_kjb5JpUhXLp_XFkmxrYqP7cnrxD4V30SrKBC8= cRqcw3SyNrhSvj4YIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37780505 37410424 36850408 36360431 34450509 33760526
33540551 33670601 33840645 34690696 35210699 35720694
37020616 37550566 37780505=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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