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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1222

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 9 17:54:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 091754
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091753=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1222
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southern MS/AL into parts of southwest
    GA and the FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091753Z - 092000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce occasional
    strong gusts and small hail through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing along outflow from morning
    convection and on the southern periphery of an MCV near the central
    MS/AL border. Strong heating to the south of the surface boundary
    has allowed temperatures to warm into 80s to near 90 F amid low to
    mid 70s F dewpoints. This is resulting in a corridor of moderate
    instability. Vertical shear will remain modest, around 20-30 kt.
    This should limit a more organized severe risk, but high PW and
    steepened low-level lapse rates will support strong downburst winds.
    Some greater damaging wind potential could develop if clustering and
    updraft consolidation occurs, but this remains uncertain. Some small
    hail also could occur with any stronger/more persistent cells. While
    watch issuance does not appear imminent, trends will be monitored
    for any better convective organization.

    ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!54BSLOYcHu2AHT8RgvOOA1ujs-XZc7OfDaoNfMMmTSoF2T-wuWptJjyCFl0rAE3cbsPMlUEvy= B3PJIq_7iytuQ2FZ6I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31838971 32138770 32698563 32478503 31708453 31278445
    30878472 30748578 30778627 30748699 30658839 30688906
    31238991 31508998 31838971=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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