ACUS11 KWNS 090140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090139=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-090315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Central/southern MO into southwest IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...

Valid 090139Z - 090315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may spread southeast into
late evening.

DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been noted with storms
near a cold front across south-central/southeast MO, with other
strong storms ongoing within the post-frontal regime into
west-central MO. For the storms near the front, MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support some threat for hail
and damaging gusts. Longevity of these storms remains uncertain, but
there is some potential for an isolated severe threat to eventually
spread southeast out of WW 395. Any potential downstream watch
issuance will depend on short-term trends regarding these storms
over the next 60-90 minutes.=20=20

MUCAPE is still on the order of 1000 J/kg immediately north of the
front, and an isolated severe threat cannot be ruled out with these
storms as well through the evening. Any remaining severe threat
should subside in the wake of the post-frontal storms, as cooler and
more stable conditions move into the region.

..Dean/Gleason.. 06/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65frti9IHfoDZ5YeKF28nCYEestl8Gk_mwQC_2DocuGsr0pMNl-iBJjlnvXTM3FFBwxWmxAVL= 3vNyVtpX7nIQlk4FSc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 36779245 37229378 37699454 38049409 38649235 38459053
38088933 37688926 37348935 37018984 36809037 36689083
36659142 36689190 36779245=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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