ACUS11 KWNS 082319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082318=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Texas to extreme
western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...

Valid 082318Z - 090045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple supercells will continue to traverse a diffuse
baroclinic boundary and pose a risk for severe hail and wind over
the next few hours. A greater severe risk is expected to evolve
later this evening with other storms that approach from the west.

DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells are in progress across
northern TX to the LA border along a diffuse baroclinic boundary.
Severe hail has been reported with some storms, and current MRMS
mosaic MESH data suggests that 2-3 inch hail may be falling with the
more dominant supercells. Given the 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50+
kts of effective bulk shear still in place, these storms should
continue to pose a significant-severe hail and wind risk for at
least a few more hours.

Eventually, supercells across the southeast TX Panhandle should
merge into an MCS as they approach from the west. While the exact
timing and evolution of this scenario is still somewhat uncertain,
the general thinking is that a bow echo with an organized
significant severe wind swath will approach the region, with peak
gusts in the 70-100 mph range. Future MCDs will be written for
northern TX as this scenario comes closer to fruition.

..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-jEiUxCJx-YNRNDZVs13SAg05LbONhQw3zYYcYcnJSL1O_mGxvwScSCAzrzdSb800wPgmG5-= CNGDgYeA80Vl4ADCXo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32339849 33249714 33389634 32619403 31859365 31469384
31469495 31769664 32009798 32339849=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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