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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1208

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 8 22:18:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 082218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082218=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-082345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1208
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast OK/southeast KS into southwest MO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...

    Valid 082218Z - 082345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing in the vicinity of
    a cold front from southeast KS/northeast OK into southwest MO.
    Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and
    effective shear of 30-35 kt will continue to support strong to
    locally severe storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the
    most likely hazards in the short term, though some tornado threat
    cannot be ruled out with any supercells that can be sustained and
    not be undercut by outflow in this regime. Given the concentration
    of ongoing storms, some modest clustering cannot be ruled out as
    convection spreads southeastward with time.=20

    With the severe threat spreading southward across northeast OK, WW
    395 has been locally expanded to the south, and additional
    expansions may be needed depending on convective trends.

    ..Dean.. 06/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9UYZ70swHxyF4_1YYGbzkM-mIQF65BCP-XUB7z9D1hxdNtXhxpeffj8BkQasr01__HLiKLBGj= qZjqNmV5vLM0suPMIc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36719392 36479458 35989529 35889582 35849630 35899676
    36339694 37359694 37499543 37479490 37459425 36719392=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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