ACUS11 KWNS 082050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082050=20
NMZ000-COZ000-082245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado and New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 082050Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across the
Front Range in Colorado and across northeastern New Mexico. The air
mass across Colorado remains under the influence of MLCIN, with
temperatures cooling with northern extend behind the surface cold
front. Moisture is also somewhat limited, with dew points in the
upper 40s to 50s. A few instances of severe hail will be possible.

Across eastern New Mexico near the dryline, a gradient of more
appreciable MLCAPE 500-1500 j/kg is in place along with deep layer
shear around 30-45 kts. Temperatures are in the mid 70s to 80s amid
dew points in the 50s to upper 60s. This may support some instances
of severe wind and hail, with at least one supercell noted on radar.
Trends will be monitored for watch potential, but it appears
unlikely at this time.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5rbDdG7uvwt-GjKXbgG2Zw4rDiWzQS5lCUq-zsrhqUywFPvRZD6A2JDbt90UkSHiwFUTG1Czn= eWl-cG4g5MkW0XC9_E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35430435 35720483 36590502 37720541 38440568 38860579
40050572 40140528 40170471 39990424 39230365 38670352
37760350 36110345 35830369 35430435=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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