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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1202

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 8 20:18:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 082018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082017=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-082215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southwestern and north-central Texas...southwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 082017Z - 082215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail/tornado threat to increase through the
    afternoon before a more significant wind threat emerges.

    DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
    the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as of this hour, with at least one
    tornado reported in Cimarron/Dallam counties. Additional development
    is ongoing west of Amarillo. It is likely some mix of supercell
    clusters will advance south and eastward through time, with
    potential for additional development to occur ahead of the dryline
    in New Mexico.

    Low-level shear improves with southward extent into Lubbock where
    surface winds are backed southeasterly improving low-level curvature
    of hodographs and streamwise vorticity. It is likely that as storms
    develop and move southward, the tornado threat will increase through
    time even with the shifting storm mode.

    A sharp gradient of extreme MLCAPE exists along the Red River near
    the Texas/Oklahoma border into north-central Texas amid steep low to
    mid-level lapse rates. As upscale growth increases, the potential
    will rapidly increase for destructive winds (80-100 mph). A Tornado
    or PDS Severe Watch is likely needed to cover this potential.

    ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7M05nI5uVSdvG1fDCAnLvC_l922TFWoC498ZVM14mFvZZ5kL7VmNDq1ItgvLhtOU2IFQODaOx= U0IGAvfMy91Ae2GQeI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32989778 32499909 32520039 33030180 33140195 33260213
    33570238 33970226 34220198 34450154 34640114 34890054
    34990025 34859872 34689799 34259739 34119726 33449729
    33079758 32989778=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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