ACUS11 KWNS 081740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081739=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-081845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of far southeast VA into eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 081739Z - 081845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly pose a
risk for damaging gusts, will be possible through the afternoon. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and rich boundary layer moisture
(surface dewpoints in the 70s) is supporting moderate instability
across the MCD area early this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
shows agitated/deepening cumulus across eastern NC, and thunderstorm development is expected within the next 1-2 hours. Effective shear
magnitudes will remain modest, but sufficient for organized
convection. Meanwhile, steep low-level lapse rates will support
strong outflow, especially if updraft consolidation from multicell
clusters occurs. Given potential for widely scattered damaging
gusts, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_PPtXRN-3qBnanE4rnKUyIesviv-Z91s90szhtNI5Sz-yLuqRljzTPtBO8M_7FHYTiRfC52fQ= hjlq14-86HKrr9W0kM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 36477769 36817674 36647593 36077547 35257553 34647632
34707775 34817823 35127840 36067787 36477769=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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