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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1197

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 8 17:04:38 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 081704
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081704=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-081830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1197
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

    Areas affected...portions of VA/MD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081704Z - 081830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are
    possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main
    hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in
    a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front
    draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating
    occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase
    and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity
    through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates
    will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will
    support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop
    amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible.
    Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as
    is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and
    favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting
    with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two.
    The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5HTNTbBKj8TYdbuuQV4o_niZC6RwndepJs4ot2P0wTRt6e35eLfgxhgwxrHrihUNL3SJKdlyl= It-REhL021824iQqb4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580
    37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834
    37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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