ACUS11 KWNS 080758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080757=20
TXZ000-080930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...the southern Texas Panhandle vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080757Z - 080930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail/severe wind threat will continue this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells across the western Texas
Panhandle earlier this morning has consolidated into a strong
supercell across the southern Panhandle. MRMS MESH is sampling
baseball sized hail with a 2" hail report from Canyon where a
mesonet site in Canyon, TX recently measured 84 mph. The environment
ahead of this supercell could support maintenance of the storm at
this intensity through the morning. However, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding evolution of this cell. Surface based
inhibition is quite strong and large-scale forcing is weak.
Therefore, the range of solutions shown by 00Z CAM guidance all
appear possible, which includes weakening of this supercell within
the next 1 to 2 hours, continuation through 14/15Z until demise, and
upscale growth into a MCS which persists through the morning. For as
long as this cell persists at its current intensity, hail up to
baseball sized and wind gusts of 80 to 90 mph will be possible.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7B-laGTkpI8glOx0duNtl97jmHfhG4gQUMZ5XSv09GWLcSrYHscFxn10KOqwjxpgwxPS1X7T2= EIDNXNLeR9Aaat1dfI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35160197 35120158 34980125 34670090 34420074 34070068
33920091 34010133 34140155 34370174 34700198 35020218
35160197=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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