012
WTNT34 KNHC 061456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN...

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Celestun to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cabo Catoche to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Milton is
moving toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward
motion is forecast on Tuesday and during the next couple of days,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during
the next couple of days and become a hurricane later today and a
major hurricane late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of locally considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding,
along with widespread minor to moderate river flooding with major
flooding possible.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday and
possible in the watch area on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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