ACUS11 KWNS 271634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271633=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-271830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...eastern NC and southern VA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 688...

Valid 271633Z - 271830Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues.

SUMMARY...A few brief tornadoes remain possible through the rest of
the afternoon as a weakening band of showers with embedded
thunderstorms moves across parts of eastern North Carolina and
southern Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Despite numerous low-level mesocyclones during the late
morning to midday, tornadogenesis has largely appeared elusive
within a persistent band of convection from the central NC/VA border
area southward into coastal far southern NC. One strong meso with
the deepest updraft last hour may have briefly produced in southern
NC per an ILM LSR. Low-level winds have subsided across the coastal
plain via LTX VWP data, but do remain sufficient for a brief tornado
threat amid 74-78 F surface dew points and temperatures in the low
80s. Farther north, low-level hodographs remain rather enlarged, but
will shrink throughout the afternoon. Morning CAM guidance suggest a
breakup to the convective band should occur, which will yield a more
cellular mode. This would favor potential for a few tornadoes, but
should be tempered by the otherwise diminishing shear/ascent
environment.

..Grams.. 09/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6co7O3gB9b-jzVXOjplnUiAvLnnC8ujJrnBnsQ6tQeSrIvGa4dD_5qODdcxhQQkx1j7cPLWc6= 7DZLOKEotEsTPIfWjQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 36577861 37157890 37617879 37827839 37877761 37627677
37267624 36667590 35907601 35007620 34257735 34067779
34077814 35217808 36577861=20


=3D =3D =3D
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