ACUS11 KWNS 202025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202025=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma...Texas...Colorado and Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 202025Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and marginally
severe hail are possible with the stronger storms.

DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional radar imagery showed
high-based showers and thunderstorms ongoing over parts of southwest
KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Likely associated with ascent from a
weak shortwave trough and front, these storms have persisted in a
drier and weakly buoyant air mass through the early afternoon.
However, convection should gradually expand northeastward toward a
more moist and buoyant air mass (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg)
through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening.
Continued heating and weak ascent will also support additional
destabilization and storm development.

Area VADs are supportive of some storm organization with 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. A few stronger/more persistent mutlicells or even
marginal supercell structures are possible. Damaging winds appear to
be the most likely threat given fairly steep low-level lapse rates
and recent reported gusts to 44 kt at KHQG. Increasing buoyancy with
eastward extent, and some potential for supercell structures may
also support a risk for marginally severe hail with the deeper
storms.

While storm coverage has so far remained isolated, additional storm
development is expected through the afternoon/evening. Still, the
limited overlap with buoyancy/deep-layer shear and lack of broader
forcing for ascent should keep storm organization and coverage
fairly limited. A WW appears unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/20/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5z1m8J8Dqy6rK8dEthzGJj9oFvKNUrCA5dy8EHzsPywkaOTSygaxQ0NfUCBLwqmzDmT9entB_= ofnCnsitRnNi2-eUjM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 37080254 37130256 37960175 38520036 39209777 38889640
38259602 37309664 36619858 36300178 36450206 37080254=20


=3D =3D =3D
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