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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2081

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 17 23:26:04 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 172326
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172325=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-180200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2081
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...western North
    Dakota...and northwestern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 172325Z - 180200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail should
    gradually increase over the next few hours. The area is being
    monitored for a possible watch, though timing is still uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms have developed along a north/south-oriented confluence zone across eastern MT. These storms
    are evolving in an environment characterized by around 40 kt of
    deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) and moderate surface-based
    instability -- supportive of organized clusters and supercell
    structures. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts could
    accompany this activity.

    During the next few hours, large-scale ascent preceding an
    approaching midlevel trough may encourage an uptick in convection
    from northeastern MT into western ND and northwestern SD. Sufficient
    deep-layer shear/mostly straight hodographs and steep deep-layer
    lapse rates should favor organized clusters and supercells capable
    of severe wind gusts and large hail. The overall timing and coverage
    of the severe threat still remains somewhat uncertain, and
    convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch for parts
    of the area.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RvJSYfscp7iI54sVoH2dfwakLu5NuLVYBY4Z7gAeJXLAcd3ZhHKgJSSd9obeFTTVwAbxs3tm= Immmx8LHHKCa-_HLgQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 44600402 46000472 46820548 47140652 47420795 47610861
    48260896 48790884 49020819 49010575 48900484 48720435
    48260376 46750285 45540234 44960227 44600266 44430348
    44600402=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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