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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2072

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 16 18:34:56 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 161834
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161834=20
    COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-162030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2072
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0134 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

    Areas affected...the Four Corners Region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161834Z - 162030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some severe gusts and perhaps some severe hail are
    possible this afternoon near the Four Corners Region. A watch is not anticipated at this time, however trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed near the Mogollon Rim over northeastern Arizona this afternoon. These storms are on the
    southeastern periphery of an expansive upper-level closed low with a
    seasonably strong mid-level jet (40-50 kts of 500 mb flow). This
    results in 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear across the region.
    Additionally, strong heating has warmed temperatures into the mid
    70s to near 80 F, resulting in steep low-level lapse rates (8-9
    C/km) and 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE per mesoanalysis. The deep-layer shear
    induced by the upper-level trough is expected to result in multicell
    clusters of storms with severe gusts being the primary threat.
    However given the steep lapse rates, straight hodographs, and low
    freezing levels, some marginally severe hail may occur as well.
    Given the expected sparse coverage of both of these, a watch is not anticipated. With time, expect clusters to move to the northeast.
    Some residual cloud cover over the San Juan Mountains is resulting
    in lingering stable air, so this may limit the longevity of these
    storms.

    ..Supinie/Gleason.. 09/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7WKOtl8W89UxB-CChgjMMzLi4liFfrb0O5XXtixX16QrwkWH-WaLVi_GM9nPepzCz89udOxIP= HCCZRufUUh4E1VbwjY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

    LAT...LON 35171077 35791115 37151074 39171018 39540976 39810923
    39770877 39590840 39060778 37830774 36580801 35890806
    35260856 35030893 34720972 34831031 35171077=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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