• TD Francine Weakens...

    From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Sep 12 08:46:00 2024
    318
    WTNT31 KNHC 121142
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
    700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

    ...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

    ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
    FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...31.9N 90.1W
    ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between Grand Isle,
    Louisiana and the mouth of the Pearl River

    The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of
    Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, including Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * The mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
    * Lake Maurepas
    * Lake Pontchartrain

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.

    For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

    For storm information specific to your area, including possible
    inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
    local National Weather Service forecast office.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
    Francine was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.1 West.
    Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19
    km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next day or
    so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
    center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of
    Mississippi through early Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is
    expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

    WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
    several hours over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southeastern
    and central Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama.

    RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to
    6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
    Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
    amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions
    of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This
    rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
    Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
    Rainfall Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
    rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
    the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
    KWBC or at the following link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html .

    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
    reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
    areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

    Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
    Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

    The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
    the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
    accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
    depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
    can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
    your area, please see products issued by your local National
    Weather Service forecast office.

    For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
    please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
    available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

    TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly this morning
    and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama.

    SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of
    the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
    cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

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