ACUS11 KWNS 112040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112040=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama into the western
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 112040Z - 120015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The tropical-cyclone tornado threat should gradually
increase through the remainder of the afternoon. A Tornado Watch
will eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...The center of Hurricane Francine continues to translate
northeast as it approaches the LA coastline. Extending
east-northeast of Francine's center is a zonal rainband, comprised
of relatively discrete cells (some possibly transient
supercellular). At the moment, these storms are percolating in
intensity offshore, where a greater theta-e/buoyant airmass resides.
However, this airmass is expected to gradually advect
northward/inland with the north-northeastward progression of
Francine through the afternoon and evening hours. HDC and MOB VADs
show increasing hodograph sizes/curvature, indicating stronger
low-level shear become established along the Gulf Coast. As such, a corresponding tornado threat should increase with the more favorable
low-level warm-air/moisture advection. A Tornado Watch will
eventually be needed.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9EzNAXyVEphhSZ_Dl5_XdbqhlZ0tuoIE9ckbzopn60_KwzjGj9E8E-kzwDCc9frB3WpXcO92_= HQDgLe5YL9NU606gjU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29628497 29838549 30238646 30308736 30318792 30548839
31038848 31448845 31688811 31648734 31368622 31168580
30778518 30238464 29978456 29808453 29628497=20


=3D =3D =3D
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