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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2044

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 3 18:08:02 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 031807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031807=20
    WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-032000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2044
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2024

    Areas affected...southwest MT and northwest WY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031807Z - 032000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few weak supercells may develop by late afternoon across
    parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated severe hail and strong to
    localized severe gusts will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased into midday, but
    should increase more prominently by 19-20Z as MLCIN further wanes
    and large-scale ascent persists downstream of a smoke-filled
    mid-level low near the Bitterroot Range. To its southeast, the
    Pocatello VWP has consistently sampled the belt of stronger
    mid-level southwesterlies from 40-45 kts, with values likely in the
    30s farther north across southwest MT. With a confined mid-level
    cold core gradually shifting east, the greater potential for
    0.75-1.5 inch hail should be focused initially across southwest MT.
    With moderate surface temperature-dew point spreads near/west of the
    Absaroka Range, wind gusts should largely be sub-severe, but may
    locally reach 50-65 mph. Somewhat greater wind potential may occur
    farther east from the Lewiston-Billings-Cody corridor as convection
    spreads into a more deeply mixed environment later.

    ..Grams/Smith.. 09/03/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Z_G3MGzJpgu8F98BLcAN0IcHGhYliZA_67XPsckVM-wWyCZVcuZVJpQkNlRbraxo2O5MDRaS= dh6hBaycTiCTY2RAZA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

    LAT...LON 46690982 46020913 45450886 44410902 43460977 43471074
    43581127 43731127 43921111 44351102 44741107 45191132
    45001245 44921341 45121406 45851377 46281393 46581408
    46831407 47111339 47221233 47051100 46690982=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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