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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2028

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 29 17:21:18 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 291721
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291720=20
    MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-291915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2028
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

    Areas affected...central Pennsylvania into western and central
    Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291720Z - 291915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop from central Pennsylvania
    southwestward along the Blue Ridge, with locally strong to damaging
    gusts possible into surrounding areas to the east later today.

    DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable air mass is in place today south
    and west of the New England surface ridge, and despite slow drying
    from the east. Visible imagery clearly indicates a very moist air
    mass with expansive cumulus fields over much of PA and southwestward
    along the Blue Ridge. GPS PWAT sensors show values of 1.75-2.00"
    from eastern VA/DelMarVa northwestward into central PA.

    Continued heating will lead to accelerated development over the
    higher terrain of eastern WV and western VA over the next few hours,
    with additional activity expected over much of central PA where weak convergence exists. Shear will remain weak over most of the area,
    with propagating clusters of storms expected to move east/southeast
    into the remainder of central and northern VA and parts of MD.
    Locally damaging gusts will be possible given the favorable timing
    of the development with peak heating, and as outflow pushes into
    regions with steep low-level lapse rates later this afternoon.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/29/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4DzIOkuzc8WOrIUMzDcCN5Loclt93NF9b34Q6tibAI3lfIffq18sPE4aOqz2bL0a1TBBJr9E2= 3-IMiqmyGtRjuf_fdI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 37588049 37968048 38637995 39737939 40667907 41197904
    41537871 41457786 41137764 40337735 39147726 38647739
    38287763 37997810 37707854 37587908 37487957 37448026
    37588049=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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