ACUS11 KWNS 290548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290547=20
NDZ000-290715-

Mesoscale Discussion 2027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Areas affected...central and eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290547Z - 290715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells across central North Dakota are expected
to persist into eastern North Dakota early this morning with a
threat or isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite shows a decaying MCS across
southeast North Dakota as this cluster moves east of the better
instability. Across western and central North Dakota, a significant
increase in convection has occurred during the last hour within the post-frontal airmass due to a combination of strengthening
isentropic ascent and DCVA ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough. Between this post-frontal convection and the decaying MCS a
locally favorable environment exists. MUCAPE around 2000 to 3000
J/kg on the apex of a strengthening low-level jet and strong shear
(50-60 knots per BIS VWP) will support strong to severe supercells.
While this environment will be quite favorable for the next 1 to 2
hours, expect storms to quickly outpace this better environment and
thus weaken across eastern/northeast North Dakota. Due to the
limited temporal nature of the threat, no severe thunderstorm watch
is justified.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9kkc6Q9v65y3KAfLE236aAJ8Q2pRovCgGoaVPdpWOH_GDpz3A6RLB-v-0EB421HanYVSjAAp5= H2d3le_EiHfca9TrJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46279930 46950013 47950026 48579988 48869896 48729772
47839716 46819762 46319806 46279930=20


=3D =3D =3D
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