ACUS11 KWNS 271903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271902=20
KSZ000-272030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271902Z - 272030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/marginally severe winds and small hail are
possible this afternoon in central/eastern Kansas. A watch is not
likely.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have initiated along an outflow
boundary in central Kansas. Additional storms are possible farther
east as heating continues this afternoon. Though deep-layer shear is
weak, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will support isolated strong/marginally
severe downburst winds as storms collapse. Small hail could occur as
well, but warm temperatures in the profile and the mentioned weak
shear should limit potential for marginally severe hail. Storms
should have a tendency to move northward given the location of the
upper-level ridge where continuing modification of the outflow
should eventually support strong wind gusts.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6AAsAwbT0A35P6VJpqwUEht974wPH1yjKT_wPalt67VZzx_ebhpWDsZypkKSh2y2MDUB6yHu9= EaYT8eTCfMA8B1r11A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37939636 38149732 38239796 38089859 38099937 38299956
39029929 39149917 39369903 39539704 39099527 38469462
37819478 37939636=20


=3D =3D =3D
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