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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2005

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 27 00:02:14 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 270002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270001=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-270130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0701 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

    Areas affected...Southwest/south-central SD into
    northwest/north-central NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650...

    Valid 270001Z - 270130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts, hail, and possibly a tornado
    will continue eastward through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded supercell structures has produced
    occasional severe wind and hail reports as it moves eastward. Recent
    VWP data from KUDX suggests the presence of a rear-inflow jet, and a combination of sufficient instability and rather strong deep-layer
    shear will help to maintain this QLCS as it moves eastward this
    evening. Embedded supercells will remain possible along the southern
    flank of the QLCS, with some additional development possible into northwest/north-central NE.=20

    The threat for severe gusts will continue to accompany this QLCS as
    it moves eastward this evening, along with a threat of hail and
    possibly a tornado with any embedded supercells. The northern extent
    of the severe threat into central SD remains in question, due to cooler/more-stable conditions and stronger MLCINH in the wake of an outflow-reinforced surface front. This renders the need for a watch
    north of WW 650 uncertain, though some threat for strong to locally
    severe gusts cannot be ruled out into central SD, given the
    relatively organized nature of the QLCS.

    ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/27/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4uIEkhLe3fdwbuR-aGXuuKWKbyAfMQr9koUDaMbXcEHALuldMl9MT0beIn5EffEs38nEX7oBX= 02yQgVfuCJr6Ockzcc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44380217 44210079 44110016 43879946 43449914 42909923
    42569948 42259979 42200081 42290194 42510254 42720257
    43370230 44380217=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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