ACUS11 KWNS 262140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262139=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-262315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Nebraska...southeast
South Dakota...southwest to central Minnesota...northwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262139Z - 262315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase over the next few hours.
Severe wind and hail would be the main threats, though a couple of
tornadoes could not be ruled out. Convective trends are being
monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convective outflow from earlier storms has sagged
southeast along the periphery of strong to extreme instability
(characterized by 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), but modest remaining
MLCINH. Forcing along this baroclinic boundary is not overly strong,
yet satellite and MRMS mosaic radar data depict attempts at
convective initiation just east of the SD/MN over the past hour or
so. Should storms develop, mature, and sustain themselves, 30-40 kts
of effective bulk shear overlapping this extreme instability will
support initial supercell structures with significant severe wind
and hail a concern. Given the extreme buoyancy and presence of one
or more boundaries, a couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out
if supercells can anchor on the boundary and ingest locally higher
SRH. If storms develop and cold pool mergers occur, bowing segments
capable of producing focused corridors of severe gusts is also
possible.

Nonetheless, given weak forcing, it is unclear if storms can become
sustained and more widespread. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!94Y_KZgP3w2fJza945j3wfN4eckK9v09hfCmE2VmYaNFqHCfyAEsyIJBf3ei1-ApIY4psq-UY= vq-pOd93doB-f5bsYg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON 42419887 43299739 44069647 44709545 45649370 45579293
45079266 44549261 43229466 42919535 42579616 42409678
42349781 42419887=20


=3D =3D =3D
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