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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2000

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 26 19:44:04 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 261944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261943=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2000
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

    Areas affected...Far eastern South Dakota into Central/Southwest
    Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...

    Valid 261943Z - 262145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for large/very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe
    winds (some 75+ mph) will increase this afternoon into the evening,
    especially for parts of central/southern Minnesota.

    DISCUSSION...A storm within the buoyancy gradient has increased in
    intensity over the last 30 minutes. Additional development appears
    likely to its immediate south-southwest. Potential for large and
    severe winds are expected to increase this afternoon. Of additional
    concern are towering cumulus starting to develop in west-central
    Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota. Short-term guidance from the
    HRRR and the latest MPAS runs suggest that one or both of these
    areas could see storms develop within the next 1-3 hours. These
    storms are in a more favorable thermodynamic environment than storms
    farther north. Large to very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe winds
    (some 75+ mph) would be possible. The exact evolution of these
    storms remains a point of uncertainty. Most guidance suggests that
    storms could congeal into an MCS where severe winds would become a
    greater threat as activity moves east.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49o3HBK2pM5dBj_LE-Evhh8V1XdsF18h7NCUscEOLCYbvNPYR7RqWYoKuSARuG1XqVoHdt5OC= RvcORyIqdxw5EcLFbo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46659530 46999428 46849376 45429329 44699369 43869508
    43749616 43679628 43689642 43909656 44839673 46349668
    46479616 46659530=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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