ACUS11 KWNS 231923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231922=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern Arizona and far southwestern New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231922Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible
as storm coverage increases this afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...With a moist airmass (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints)
being heated into the mid/upper 90s F, storms have initiated earlier
than most guidance had suggested. Currently, objective mesoanalysis
suggests between 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is present. Vertical shear,
however, is quite weak under the influence of the upper ridge. The
primary hazard will likely be severe wind gusts, particularly as
additional heating should tend to mix dewpoints out to some extent.
The strongest storms could also produce marginally severe hail as
they peak in intensity.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/23/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5AQlI4tcncPTKWTbSzOGQWm47OR1Ge8RIgckS_JDwgwy9LAR_gDAJhgdQonKvFu_tJCT-eIGp= C3oADExXKBB80xBkTE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31191111 33241112 34091043 34020968 32950888 31260867
31191111=20


=3D =3D =3D
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