ACUS11 KWNS 231832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231831=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-232030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern ID...northwest WY...and
southwest MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231831Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon across parts of central/eastern Idaho,
northwest Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Locally strong gusts of
50-65 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter may occur with strongest
cells.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid 70s to
mid 80s F across the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates/cool
temperatures aloft are aiding in weak destabilization early this
afternoon. As a result scattered convection has already developed
over higher terrain. This activity should gradually
increase/strengthen with time as additional destabilization occurs
through the afternoon within a moderately sheared environment.=20

Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but very steep low-level
lapse rates and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will
support strong outflow winds. Regional VWP data and forecast
soundings show elongated/straight hodographs. Coupled with cool
midlevel temps and favorable vertical shear, this could support
marginally severe hail from stronger/longer-lived updrafts. The
somewhat moisture-starved environment should limit a greater/more
widespread severe risk, and a watch is not currently expected for
the MCD area.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/23/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4JyVoWKtm4CYitJX9KxAhwARn0M3qsT1KZk02Zbd7zBVeaLFMyap8c399J89rCJAJiBNHeWJm= o7c2U8HZJEJw99tr78$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 46091515 46141312 45981081 45820966 45330912 44920906
44340897 42950936 42511022 42011118 41961231 42161328
44581520 45571565 46091515=20


=3D =3D =3D
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