ACUS11 KWNS 230144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230144=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-230345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0844 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644...

Valid 230144Z - 230345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644
continues.

SUMMARY...Wind/hail threat will spread across eastern portions of
ww644 over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based convection that initiated over the
higher terrain of central/southern CO has matured into an MCS that
is now advancing into northwest KS. Over the last hour or so, a weak
MCV appears to have developed which is now just south of AKO,
supporting the overall organization of this complex. 1km AGL
southeasterly inflow across western KS is on the order of 25-30kt,
which will encourage propagation across at least the western
portions of the main instability corridor. 00z soundings from the
central High Plains exhibit substantial CINH, and further
boundary-layer stabilization is expected as surface temperatures
cool. Given the organization of this complex, further propagation is
likely into the eastern-most portions of the watch; however, updraft intensities have likely peaked and gradual weakening can be expected
by 03-04z. Until then, damaging winds will likely be the primary
risk.

..Darrow.. 08/23/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!80Ol4aRZ_rC1a-oFk6_Q3XEOnA1CJS6eupzNq153lx293GMK0hclRimChFAMDGxb01L8MAX-c= VQb3k6Ez5HAKnU59vk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40200372 40500082 38750082 38450370 40200372=20


=3D =3D =3D
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