ACUS11 KWNS 212317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212316=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-220115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Areas affected...eastern Montana...western North
Dakota...northeastern Wyoming...and parts of western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642...

Valid 212316Z - 220115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk -- ongoing in/near WW 642 -- is
forecast to expand across northeastern Montana over the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite loops show isolated convection
-- rather slow to initiate thus far -- increasing across portions of
the northeastern Wyoming vicinity. While a couple of strong/severe
storms persist east of the Black Hills, the aforementioned
convection increasing over northeastern Wyoming should continue to
increase, and spread into WW 642 with time.

Meanwhile, a minor increase in convection over the past half hour is
noted over portions of eastern Montana, in the wake of prior storms
which have moved across the border into Saskatchewan. Recent HRRR
runs continue to show robust convective development across eastern
Montana, as a mid-level short-wave trough now over southern Alberta
and western Montana advances slowly east-northeastward. With a
favorably unstable airmass in place (mixed-layer CAPE in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range across east-central and northeastern Montana and
into western North Dakota), and moderately strong/increasing flow
with height that should strengthen with time with the approach of
the mid-level system, the environment within and north/northeast of
WW 642 suggests severe potential will persist well into this
evening. New WW issuance into portions of northeastern Montana and
possibly western North Dakota, currently not included within WW 642,
will likely be required within the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Goss.. 08/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96pp6S7Fbmt8tku_ijkA33uZDiJrAXpnc-94c8VkaTESA3llOKyZ0UJY89Dn83ewq7o-tZ_eg= 1ipbhs7T_vzMeJaz0E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 48970877 48970458 48350405 45170149 43580099 44290392
45570612 47130877 48970877=20


=3D =3D =3D
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