ACUS11 KWNS 212143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212142=20
AZZ000-212315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212142Z - 212315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The severe
threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Pulse-cellular storms have been percolating in
intensity over the past few hours with approach of peak afternoon
heating. These storms are developing atop a low-level airmass
characterized by steep low-level lapse rates. Given relatively weak
vertical wind shear in place, storms will likely remain
pulse-cellular in nature, though a few multicell clusters are
possible. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple
instances of large hail may also accompany the strongest,
longest-lived storm cores.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-oF3lBgYCaHKhJIJGoCH2SGszbsfmuYX2PrGnilimHIt1mA8RbwVqbrSb6LiogTdMvyzcR70Z= VAR4hiPXT2B_1UWNv8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31231125 32191173 33041210 33561201 33541125 33221064
32690992 32150936 31550924 31230931 31231125=20


=3D =3D =3D
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