ACUS11 KWNS 200006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200005=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Areas affected...western Montana and adjacent portions of Idaho

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640...

Valid 200005Z - 200200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms moving northeastward across
the western Montana vicinity remain capable of producing locally
gusty/damaging outflow winds.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered thunderstorms moving northeastward across the western Montana vicinity, including a few embedded/stronger cells. The storms are very high-based, with
surface temperatures in convectively unperturbed areas in the low
90s, and dewpoints in the 30s.=20=20

With the mixed layer extending to around 600 mb, and modest CAPE
(around 500 J/kg) above, potential for substantial evaporatively
driven downdraft acceleration is evident. This suggests ongoing
risk for locally damaging wind gusts as storms continue shifting
across the area. Eventually, diurnal cooling of the boundary layer
will begin to hinder the severe risk, but until then, risk persists
in/near WW 640.

..Goss.. 08/20/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_53eqYX62ioEGTyd46sZmK43v8YcybVOSE17lf05nG15pgry0oXsZq_gvjEUBAzomztBbEJ-X= RYRNJCd-UZ1XTBk-fU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...

LAT...LON 48811460 48931353 48491164 47511027 46230952 45410976
45061178 44631441 44751547 45631623 48811460=20


=3D =3D =3D
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