ACUS11 KWNS 192022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192021=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-192145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Areas affected...much of western Montana and the central Idaho
Mountains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192021Z - 192145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
evening with a threat for severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s across the
central Idaho mountains which has eroded inhibition and resulted in
scattered thunderstorm development. RAP forecast soundings show very
deep mixing (perhaps as deep as 5-6km) which will support
evaporative cooling and strengthening downbursts. The downstream
environment across western Montana still shows moderate inhibition
(per SPC mesoanalysis) which should erode further as warming
continues. As this occurs, expect strengthening of ongoing storms
and additional development across western Montana. Moderate
upper-level flow ahead of the Pacific Northwest upper-level trough
will overspread this region late this afternoon and evening which
may result in storm organization and a greater severe weather
threat. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.

..Bentley/Hart.. 08/19/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-b9ty63Ipf3z_Unil01Fl3eISV2Z2KKbwzZBXKSPhhmq8cO_9Tnh4nrzpTAVRaT-b6uCW-jku= K6as21KD8YBdI8p8_o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...

LAT...LON 44431433 44981525 47541489 49021400 49041176 49030985
48580993 46571090 45291195 44541301 44371348 44431433=20


=3D =3D =3D
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