ACUS11 KWNS 182307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182306=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1950
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Idaho into southwest Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182306Z - 190130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and severe hail are possible as thunderstorms track northeastward into this evening. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
across portions of southeast ID and southwest MT this afternoon --
along the eastern periphery of a large-scale trough off the Pacific
Northwest coast. These storms are along the eastern periphery of a
belt of 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterly flow, which is contributing
to favorable deep-layer shear for some convective organization --
given sufficient (albeit weak) surface-based instability and steep
deep-layer lapse rates. Initial cellular activity will pose a risk
of isolated severe hail and locally severe downbursts. With time,
some localized upscale growth is expected as storms track
northeastward into this evening, with an increasing risk of embedded
severe wind gusts (60-70 mph). Overall, the severe risk is expected
to be too localized for a watch consideration.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6U4W_J6BcK98VkWsnibYTkF8eGP5os6e_Qe7qm2JYBfYuFTxhbOFSwPIB7wsZTf5qyoQycIdx= afdvde8TJcuQXSffV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 44931269 44501262 43661214 42891195 42211237 42111312
42211425 42511456 43321445 43701412 44201392 45131410
45471445 46041435 47621339 47821294 47851252 47631197
47181155 46521160 45711242 44931269=20


=3D =3D =3D
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