ACUS11 KWNS 181645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181645=20
KSZ000-181845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181645Z - 181845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...If a MCS, currently moving out of southeast Nebraska can
persist until mid-afternoon, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...An MCS which developed within a zone of isentropic
ascent across northern Nebraska last night has persisted and now has
a well-established cold-pool. Over the last hour, deeper cores and
cooling cloud tops have been evident on satellite as this cluster of
storms moves across southeast Nebraska. Despite all 12Z CAM guidance
suggesting the demise of this cluster by mid-day, current
radar/satellite trends would suggest it may persist for awhile.
Strong inhibition remains ahead of this activity currently, but if
the convection can maintain for another ~2 hours, it may be able to
transition to surface based as additional heating erodes downstream
inhibition. If this does occur, moderate instability, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and 40+ knots of effective shear would
support a bowing line segment with the potential for 75+ mph wind
gusts.=20

Convective trends will be monitored and if an organized bowing
cluster of storms seems imminent, a severe thunderstorm watch will
be issued.

..Bentley/Hart.. 08/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-3XIpDrz9e_u87dsPwxZrQG4r1a9H_ILcYt1Q_-bUTeW5WlPJtakBV66k1mMimYu5bS7_-tHb= DkXIAyL7Wbnn9W8SZc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39369813 39699832 39989783 39999670 39939616 39579566
37779467 37089470 37029528 37099630 37499705 38199747
39369813=20


=3D =3D =3D
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