ACUS11 KWNS 181252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181251=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-181445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...Central/Southeast NE...North-Central/Northeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633...

Valid 181251Z - 181445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong gusts continues across
central Nebraska. This threat may continue into southeast Nebraska
and north-central/northeast Kansas and downstream watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Despite becoming displaced further east of the primary
low-level jet axis, the cluster (which now consists of two primary
supercells) across central NE has persisted and perhaps even
strengthened. This likely results from a combination of mature storm organization, increasing large-scale ascent, and continued mid-level
warm-air advection. Current storm motion of the two supercells is southeasterly at 30 to 35 kt, which brings them to the edge of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 at around 1430Z. However, there is
some chance these storms begin progressing faster, as the system
becoming increasingly linear.=20

This cluster is expected to continue southeastward along the
northern gradient of the corridor of buoyancy extending from central
KS into western SD. Low-level stability may persist ahead of this
cluster for at least the next several hours, but the trends over the
past hour suggest this cluster is likely mature enough to maintain
its strength. As such, large hail and strong gusts remain possible.
Given the persisting low-level stability, the longevity is
uncertain, but trends suggest a downstream watch may be needed into
southeast NE and adjacent north-central/northeast KS.

..Mosier/Smith.. 08/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5iB2gjLC0TkTOyTkj_ZrJe_p_HVHRAid0kaRX-xs663EOIopTn5bj2Umwrl6huar_Z9HYJ7pf= FykldWYd-kNTEsLWVA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 39559851 41260017 42360019 42649952 42519850 41229650
39669621 39559851=20


=3D =3D =3D
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