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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1940

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 18 10:51:22 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 181051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181050=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-181245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1940
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0550 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

    Areas affected...South-Central SD...North-Central/Central NE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633...

    Valid 181050Z - 181245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong gusts will continues
    across far south-central South Dakota and north-central/central
    Nebraska for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Lead supercell within the elevated cluster of showers
    and thunderstorms extending from central SD into far north-central
    NE has maintained its intensity over the past hour while much of the
    other convection has weakened. Organized character of this storm
    suggests it will remain strong as it continues southeastward into
    more of north-central NE over the next hour or so. Thereafter,
    displacement from the warm-air advection responsible of this storm's
    initiation could result in a gradual weakening. Until this weakening
    begins, both large hail and strong gusts are possible with this
    storm.

    Farther southwest (i.e. across central NE), elevated thunderstorms
    continue to push eastward into central NE. These storms developed
    along the leading edge of the greater large-scale forcing for ascent
    attendant to a shortwave trough emerging into the central High
    Plains. Despite moderate buoyancy, these storms have been slow to
    strengthen. Some strengthening is possible over the next hour or so
    as forcing for ascent persists and vertical shear increases
    slightly. Large hail is the primary risk with these storms.

    ..Mosier.. 08/18/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9kFL__xLi_iPGBMQys4L5TQ7uYZVIriIQalSb-m1FtpPeaCe_QpNt5l6c40gsPwfDT4Rxj5IT= PwExKM9fz1xsIUtFvE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43830005 43739840 42689760 41229830 41160076 43180075
    43830005=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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