ACUS11 KWNS 172218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172218=20
ORZ000-CAZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern California into western Oregon

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 172218Z - 172345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 631. Damaging gusts and hail remain the primary concerns.

DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of strong, sustained thunderstorms
continue to track north-northwestward in tandem with the stronger
mid-level flow. The first round of thunderstorms in OR are comprised
of a mix of multicells and transient supercells, likely producing at
least small hail (per MRMS mosaic radar data). 6.5-7 C/km
tropospheric lapse rates atop low 60s F dewpoints are contributing
to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a continued risk for
strong wind gusts and hail.

Farther south into northern CA, a 500 mb speed max is overspreading
the area (per 22Z mesoanalysis), supporting locally stronger wind
shear and the northward advection of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Small but sustained supercell structures have become established in
this area, likely accompanied by a hail threat. Steep low-level
lapse rates and terrain influences are contributing to overlapping
100+ J/kg 0-3 km CAPE and low-level vertical vorticity, which are
also fostering supercell potential. However, 20-30 F T/Td spreads
are common across northern CA, indicative of a well-mixed boundary
layer supporting strong wind gusts, though a landspout can't be
completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 08/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46ri65-CI-xBjCFT_9JVBWMWoSUiKAWHy-XIZvYd9a1AJ8x3TmZ_bE8S9B8cnkIp32sarF__5= UAp0pK8-R2-6PFuYJ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...

LAT...LON 41072188 40382228 40192273 40252317 40552338 44422305
45062274 45302239 45442194 45492128 45422111 45132103
42792141 41072188=20


=3D =3D =3D
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