ACUS11 KWNS 171936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171936=20
WAZ000-ORZ000-CAZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Areas affected...far northern California...along the Oregon Cascades
and into the far southern Washington Cascades.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171936Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from northern
California to the south Washington Cascades.

DISCUSSION...Weak instability has started to develop across northern
California and into southern Washington ahead of a strong mid-level
trough. Expect instability to increase through the afternoon as
surface heating continues, low-level moisture advects northward, and temperatures cool aloft. Ascent associated with the strong
negatively tilted shortwave trough currently approaching the
northern California coast has started to overspread northern
California and southern Oregon where an increase in lightning
activity is evident. In addition, some mini supercell structures are
evident which is not surprising given the strong flow aloft (45
knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots above 300mb per MFR and SLE 18Z
RAOBs). Continued surface heating and steepening lapse rates/cooling
aloft should lead to a thermodynamic profile supporting more robust storm/supercell development and the potential for some large hail.
While stronger storms will be favored over the higher terrain of the
Cascades, storm motion may bring some of these storms into the
foothills or perhaps even the Willamette Valley later this afternoon/evening.=20

A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to address this threat.

..Bentley/Hart.. 08/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4r1jRL760ctrpchZEMcSm5-Ngz14e-yP4QJizllG7ynCreuxbvxLMnGxpOS2O_q99XstQtgMc= rXlafsvumPUKlz_8KE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR...EKA...

LAT...LON 41832336 43132329 44532313 45362292 45792268 46232233
46492171 45992130 44562136 43432145 42372151 41862164
41342198 41222231 41192287 41832336=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)