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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1925

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 17 00:39:54 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 170039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170038=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-170215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1925
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0738 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of western Oklahoma into far northwestern
    Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

    Valid 170038Z - 170215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 628. Severe wind and hail remain the primary threats over the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A robust uptick in convective coverage and intensity
    has been noted in north-central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas over
    the past couple of hours, where severe wind and hail have been
    observed. Despite weak forcing, thunderstorms have managed to
    initiate off of multiple converging low-level baroclinic/outflow
    boundaries. Furthermore, the OUN 00Z observed sounding shows near
    3000 J/kg MLCAPE atop a mixed boundary layer, characterized by 30F
    T/Td spreads. 20-30 F spreads are also evident across eastern OK
    ahead of the ongoing storms, with 00Z mesoanalysis depicting over
    4500 J/kg MLCAPE (given mid 70s F surface dewpoints). Meanwhile, the
    00Z OUN sounding, as well as VNX, TLX, and INX VAD profilers show
    hodographs with modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation,
    supporting supercell structures when accounting for the strong to
    locally extreme buoyancy in place. As such, supercells may persist
    into northeast OK over the next few hours with a continued
    severe-wind threat, though large hail is also possible.

    ..Squitieri.. 08/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47JFbmNvTuwls3VK5Ewe8JI4hPfDzVhYz6cTrRhkmtqGeq0NJED8aHY0vlVGE8a4Jd4kkyyg0= 8FU6a941MtIFQ5lkGU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35209990 36199857 36849753 37039542 36979429 36659377
    36289372 36029411 35869555 35629666 35099774 34889843
    34939930 35209990=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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