ACUS11 KWNS 160151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160151=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-160315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri...into
western Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623...

Valid 160151Z - 160315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623
continues.

SUMMARY...A local extension of WW 623, and perhaps a new downstream
watch, may be needed as convection crosses the Mississippi River
into Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Despite some stabilization of the nocturnal boundary
layer, a loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms in southeastern
Iowa has maintained its intensity in an environment with > 3000 J/kg
MUCAPE and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts. The environment downstream
will likely continue to support these storms well after dark, with
additional upscale growth and organization not out of the question.
The primary threat is for damaging winds, especially if upscale
growth and subsequent leading-edge outflow develops, though some
uncertainty remains in whether this will occur.

..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xYkCRprJnGqZh3hZk8TsLByEoNPtagBD0dP9QtYCkLkzla1RcHjJM2zWtUvf8HvUQu9Ea75Q= g4aIKrh2LR1Di1RpKU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40189215 40659237 41299233 41519218 41719149 41729060
41698989 41528939 41138913 40768927 40368971 40229057
40159139 40189215=20


=3D =3D =3D
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