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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1905

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 15 04:33:16 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 150433
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150432=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-150600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1905
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1132 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

    Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas into west-central and
    northwestern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622...

    Valid 150432Z - 150600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging wind gusts continues from
    northwestern Missouri into eastern Kansas. Risk should begin to
    gradually diminish in the next 1 to 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a fairly well-developed line of
    storms -- with some embedded bowing -- moving eastward across
    northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Less-organized
    convection -- where local risk for gusty winds is ongoing -- extends southwestward to near the ICT (Wichita, KS) area.

    The greatest short-term threat is expected in/around the Kansas City
    metro area, where the most unstable airmass (around 2500 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) is indicated.=20
    Here, local gusts in excess of 60 to 65 MPH will be possible in the
    next hour or so.

    With time, the cooling/stabilizing boundary layer along with lesser
    instability with eastward extent suggests that storms will begin to
    gradually diminish in intensity, and thus severe potential. As
    such, the current 15/06Z expiration of WW 622 seems appropriate,
    though a local extension in time could be implemented for a few
    counties south/east of the existing watch if trends warrant.

    ..Goss.. 08/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ROwMWKe13Uonfkpqxr5M5hLkOuedbJuaGHAGP0_dDSg2QBuWk9du1YfHR9yxSst522G_iOpW= bD2JR3ws9VurrfXQts$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37999576 37809684 38449677 39939454 40309418 40659348
    40499272 39469270 38389418 37999576=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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