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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1893

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 13 20:43:04 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 132043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132042=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1893
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado...far southeast Wyoming...and the Nebraska Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132042Z - 132245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
    producing severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible this
    afternoon. The severe threat should eventually increase farther east
    into this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated/discrete thunderstorms are evolving
    along/immediately east of the Colorado Rockies and northward into
    the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon, as diurnal heating continues
    to erode MLCINH along a surface wind shift/lee trough. Over the next
    couple hours, a few of these storms may intensify and pose a risk of
    isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts -- aided by around
    30 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by DEN VWP and latest ACARS
    soundings). Overall, weak instability and limited large-scale
    forcing should limit the severe threat with these initial
    thunderstorms. With time, thunderstorms should increase in coverage
    and spread eastward into richer boundary-layer moisture and
    associated instability -- which should favor an increasing severe
    risk into this evening. A watch is not expected for the initial
    thunderstorms developing along/immediately east of the higher
    terrain in the near-term, though convective trends will be
    monitored.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/13/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-BD5H7SA2sWYs4vYxlmVAkkOu71sGclBwvTJS8gGPrPfO0kGQcJ5zksos-8M5YNdTzDRhpQGB= mb2h0vj-6Yxt-cIy2w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 38650355 38140329 37670323 37460350 37340384 37410430
    37930458 38330473 39600525 40120530 40550522 41310468
    41810418 42500349 42440298 42150272 41580283 41100325
    40260381 39490387 38650355=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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