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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1883

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 11 22:18:56 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 112218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112218=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-120015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1883
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

    Areas affected...Far Southwest South Dakota...Western
    Nebraska...Northeast Colorado...Far Northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618...619...

    Valid 112218Z - 120015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618, 619
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will
    continue across the central Plains over the next few hours. There is
    a localized potential for hail over 2 inches in diameter.

    DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over much of
    the central U.S., with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the
    central High Plains. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
    located from southwestern South Dakota extending southward into far
    eastern Colorado. Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are
    ongoing just to the east of the boundary. The RAP suggests that the
    storms are near an axis of instability, with MLCAPE just to the east
    of the front estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
    addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs also show moderate deep-layer shear
    in place across much of the central High Plains. 0-6 km shear
    appears to be in the 40 to 50 knot range along and near the
    instability axis. This will continue to support supercell
    development over the next few hours. Severe wind gusts and isolated
    large hail will be the primary threats. Hailstones of greater than 2
    inches in diameter will be possible locally, mainly over far
    northeast Colorado and far northwest Kansas, where the combination
    of instability and shear appears to be maximized.

    ..Broyles.. 08/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Ve2QCJ-5lJkg65hYgLK4MGBfkQqoE7oVBrVr_eApukbVX2cixExXDNaTeosQPlnQre2nhYGF= 5imtoxy9kHIE34CRHI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 41640244 40420263 39900254 39570221 39510183 39620134
    40040105 41390060 42350032 42910030 43230057 43410129
    43350191 43170218 42840231 41640244=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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