ACUS11 KWNS 111917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111917=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Areas affected...Northeast CO...southwest NE...far southeast
WY...and far northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111917Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase over the
next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the
area.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening and
expanding along an east/west-oriented confluence zone extending from southeastern WY into the southwestern NE Panhandle -- and isolated
convective initiation is underway here. Additional attempts at
development are ongoing along a lee trough extending northward
across southwest WY. Given this focused mesoscale ascent and
continued diurnal heating of a relatively moist boundary layer
(middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints), current expectation is
for a few thunderstorms to evolve/intensify during the next couple
hours before spreading east-southeastward. The CYS VWP is sampling a unidirectional westerly shear profile (around 35 kt of 0-6 km
shear), and this will continue increasing to around 40-50 kt with
the approach of a midlevel jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms may
intensify into organized clusters and/or supercell structures,
posing a risk of large hail (generally up to 2 inches in diameter)
and severe wind gusts to around 70 mph.=20

Modest large-scale ascent and substantial MLCINH with eastward
extent cast uncertainty on the overall coverage of the severe
threat, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch this
afternoon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PSi95hqeV4Iqz1ICcOtCUrfAQ1VasSvmgZ7fbmwvpECCIyA6G30P1arKM3LjykO8d-6V7wUO= k1uFuQBYk7PtwaSox0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40690381 40960413 41270421 41630423 41970412 42180382
42190335 41670208 40830143 39410123 39000162 38940247
39190294 40240355 40690381=20


=3D =3D =3D
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