ACUS11 KWNS 102013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102013=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-102215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Areas affected...Parts of eastern ID...southwest/south-central MT...western/central WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102013Z - 102215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed early this
afternoon from eastern ID into southwest MT and western WY, in
association with a shortwave trough moving across the interior
Northwest. Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but steep
midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of near or above 500 J/kg
where somewhat stronger diurnal heating has occurred. One supercell
is ongoing near the ID/WY border, and effective shear of 30-40 kt
will continue to support occasionally organized storms through the
afternoon. Isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible
with the initially discrete storms. With time, one or more
outflow-dominant clusters could evolve and spread
east-southeastward, resulting in localized corridors of somewhat
greater strong to severe gust potential.

..Dean/Goss.. 08/10/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8hWsbrW5dmRCmGkTeIzsGA4dbfGR_rDSqW2j3JrMtUCtnimo3aAcyBA_5avC_bXfmGUghE685= CBw7dzFq4_sxdY56LM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 42961217 43561154 44031180 44171256 44641374 45811326
46631201 47081031 46670967 45410853 43100623 42180701
42540962 42521176 42961217=20


=3D =3D =3D
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