ACUS11 KWNS 092051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092051=20
WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-092245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1875
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central WY into extreme northeast UT/southeast ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092051Z - 092245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible from late
afternoon into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of building cumulus are noted across
parts of southern/central WY this afternoon, with a strong storm
over far northern UT. While low-level moisture remains rather
modest, a combination of diurnal heating and relatively steep lapse
rates have resulted in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE
increasing to near or above 500 J/kg across much of the region.
Generally unidirectional wind profiles with moderate westerly
midlevel flow are supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient
for modestly organized cells/clusters as storms mature.=20

Initial storms could pose a nonzero hail threat, but one or more
outflow-driven clusters may evolve with time, as storms move through
a well-mixed environment. Steep low-level lapse rates will support
potential for strong to locally severe gusts as convection spreads
eastward from late afternoon into the early evening.

..Dean/Goss.. 08/09/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Z08rk9A3pLN8Au8Kx877c1tGuQhbbwLvR53Btwq3zV8CFbbIEAe4otz6giPg2jJYcm3fvekk= zCejJCjAsKSDUKvwpE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 41150838 41141054 41291092 41591169 42151169 42971069
43470985 43360752 43310709 42960589 42190559 41490554
41120557 41070616 41170738 41150838=20


=3D =3D =3D
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