ACUS11 KWNS 071520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071520=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-071745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...portions of coastal North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071520Z - 071745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out through early
afternoon. A WW issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Debby continues to meander off of the
coastline of the Carolinas as widespread rain/clouds from outer rain
bands continue to overspread inland areas. Regional VADs
(particularly LTX) depict sizable low-level hodographs and nearly
300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. However, despite mid to upper 70s F
contributing to over 1000 J/kg SB/MLCAPE, boundary-layer lapse rates
remains quite poor (both the 12Z MHX observed sounding and 15Z
mesoanalysis show 5 C/km in the 0-3 km layer). Given the favorable
low-level shear, a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out,
especially over far southern NC, where some breaks in the clouds
were noted. Nonetheless, overall tornado coverage is expected to be
sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/07/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8FBJtMPWHOID61g_Z4iEeEpLWOxx2oX7WMNSYZ3CuhL76INq2OLMua5D9jyu5wu1Vy4DeYsaO= G2C6t6ZZjYnXFNAeus$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 33617860 34107878 35117808 35857677 35957595 35587538
35117536 34557663 33767783 33617860=20


=3D =3D =3D
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