ACUS11 KWNS 012016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012015=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-012245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico into the western Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012015Z - 012245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage away from higher terrain is slowly
increasing across northeastern New Mexico and portions of the
western OK/TX Panhandles. Thermodynamic conditions are favorable for
strong to severe outflow winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing for much of the
afternoon within the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Raton Mesa
within a weak upslope flow regime, but have remained relatively
benign. However, more recent convective initiation is noted along a
subtle surface trough/confluence zone draped to the southeast across
northeast NM into the TX Panhandle. Temperatures climbing into the
upper 90s and low 100s are eroding any lingering MLCIN, which should
continue to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
along the surface boundary over the next few hours. These hot
conditions are driving dewpoint depressions upwards of 30-50 F,
implying that a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is in place across
the region - especially along and south of the boundary - that will
promote strong downdraft accelerations. Weak flow aloft will limit
storm organization and longevity, but strong to severe outflow winds
appear possible.=20

Some recent CAM solutions hint that a cold-pool driven cluster may
emerge across northeast NM later this afternoon/evening and
propagate to the southeast. This would pose a somewhat more
widespread wind threat, but this scenario is conditional on
achieving sufficient convective coverage and cold pool amalgamation.
Other solutions suggest that a storm or two may migrate far enough
east to intensify within a more moist/buoyant air mass. However,
this potential appears limited given a high likelihood for the
development of undercutting outflows. Given low confidence in these
scenarios, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Zaf6CFaeplFErK8bQsrVac_NpDdoZZYTo0j23LrSCD81AjhEghjqrcDzAicn0ENr-oFn9Lj9= ZsSolykn8lqH1uMvFE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36600508 36660494 36790471 36890427 36930410 36960361
36940314 36770277 36520237 36230212 35970195 35610184
35430181 35110186 34980199 34810229 34650268 34560334
34580378 34690415 34950440 35250467 35630505 36060525
36300524 36410513 36600508=20


=3D =3D =3D
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