ACUS11 KWNS 311648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311647=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-311815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Areas affected...northeast SD and southeast ND into west-central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 311647Z - 311815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for large hail (up
to 2 inch diameter) and severe gusts to 75 mph into the afternoon
hours. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters across southeast ND/northeast SD
have intensified over the past hour or so as the airmass continues
to destabilize. A corridor of strong instability is noted across the
discussion area, though some lingering MLCIN likely resulting in
slighted elevated convection. With additional heating and increasing
ascent, inhibition should erode over the next couple of hours, with
further destabilization expected downstream into western/central MN.
Favorable vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater
than 35 kt, will support continued storm organization. Furthermore,
very steep midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km are present across
this area. Favorable thermodynamics and elongated hodographs suggest
large to very large hail is possible. As convection become surface
based, an increasing risk for severe gusts to 75 mph will accompany
this activity.

Additional convection is expected to develop further southwest near
a surface low and cold front. This activity may initially be
supercellular, also posing a risk of very large hail and significant
wind gusts. However, upscale development may occur quickly given
linear forcing tied to the front. A severe thunderstorm watch will
likely be needed soon.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5uXo0etKDfnomTxJLwkTdVted-o6Cq_pf3UnaLGJF_QWc9ALZX6zExn6M_MbXp4Sqo5DG8x7K= rSVldDyMBjs6qgyRhs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45119481 44639661 44449831 44519944 44800016 44920018
45440033 45989965 46939820 47079764 47129614 46869546
46249491 45669476 45119481=20


=3D =3D =3D
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