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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1753

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 30 23:32:56 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 302332
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302332=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-310100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1753
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0632 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of western into south-central South Dakota
    and far north-central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572...

    Valid 302332Z - 310100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts continues
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 572.

    DISCUSSION...A few discrete supercells are ongoing from portions of west-central SD to north-central NE -- generally focused immediately
    ahead of a north/south-oriented dryline/lee trough. These storms
    have been producing severe hail ranging from 1.25-2.00 inches in
    diameter. Middle/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and steep
    deep-layer lapse rates are contributing to strong surface-based
    instability, which combined with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will
    support a continued increase in updraft intensity during the next
    few hours. Generally weak large-scale and mesoscale ascent will
    likely favor a continued discrete/semi-discrete supercell mode, with
    large to very large hail and locally severe gusts the main concerns.

    Currently, the most intense discrete supercell is turning/deviating
    to the south-southeast across southern Ziebach County, SD. With
    minimal inhibition and the aforementioned shear/instability
    downstream across southwest/south-central SD, this is the most
    favorable corridor for very large hail (up to around 2.5 inches) and
    severe gusts upwards of 75 mph.

    ..Weinman.. 07/30/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_675vY6Wna7AMrsFC7iD1nNhbvu59C6nJWjAbhozr2MnCvSsW03IKuPv2J5LYoQU45n8wTbHA= AkU4nOpGWfCZ6yMD9Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43080119 43650185 44100221 44320226 44750206 44870172
    44740141 44480115 44240099 43890071 43469994 43089936
    42739913 42409950 42349998 42470041 43080119=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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